What If; in 1941 Japan doesn’t attack America and England, instead the Japanese had just taken Indonesia for the oil?
-England can go to war to defend the Dutch government in exile - or it can somewhat shamefacedly decline. America can but hardly with the determination after Pearl Harbor.
The big challenge for the Japanese in 1941 is the reaction of the USA to their invasion of the Asian South. Would it intervene, or not? There was a big argument in Tokyo about this. The prevailing view was, because the USA was proactively arming China, it would not standby and allow an attack of this kind and thus its counter-attack capability, the Pacific Fleet in San Diego, would need to be eliminated. Then, lo and behold, the Pacific Flet was moved closer to Japan, and the Japanese decision was made for it. Only a few voices argued that an attack on Hawaii would precipitate rather than prevent US intervention, but such was the prevailing hubris in Tokyo that the Pearl Harbor raid was authorised.
What If; in 1941 Japan doesn’t attack America and England, instead the Japanese had just taken Indonesia for the oil?
-England can go to war to defend the Dutch government in exile - or it can somewhat shamefacedly decline. America can but hardly with the determination after Pearl Harbor.
Pardon the What If <
The big challenge for the Japanese in 1941 is the reaction of the USA to their invasion of the Asian South. Would it intervene, or not? There was a big argument in Tokyo about this. The prevailing view was, because the USA was proactively arming China, it would not standby and allow an attack of this kind and thus its counter-attack capability, the Pacific Fleet in San Diego, would need to be eliminated. Then, lo and behold, the Pacific Flet was moved closer to Japan, and the Japanese decision was made for it. Only a few voices argued that an attack on Hawaii would precipitate rather than prevent US intervention, but such was the prevailing hubris in Tokyo that the Pearl Harbor raid was authorised.
Nice exposition, another book on my very long to-read list. Thanks!